on whether or not baby boomers are baby doomers

The biggest concerns about Medicare currently is the 65th birthdays of the Baby Boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1964. As mentioned previously, at 65 years old, American citizens qualify for Medicare. The system operates based on the notion that those currently paying into the system—younger, employed workers—will pay for the Medicare costs of the older retirees.

The problem the baby boomer generation poses is that it is a massive generation. Like 76 million people massive.¹ And, to put it bluntly, elderly healthcare is expensive. Bone and joint replacements, medication, and hospice, among other medical needs, make the last decade of life the most expensive. Come 2029, 57% of the population (that's 6% less than in 2011) will be paying into Medicare while 20% (up from ~13 from 2011) will qualify.² Plus, retiring baby boomers means a loss of many experienced medical professionals as well. A government report began circulating that Medicare funds would be exhausted by 2024, raised to 2026 the following year.³

The emergence of these statistics a decade ago caused a state of alarm that today is still echoed in the media from time to time. It seemed inevitable that in order to maintain the Medicare and Social Security budgets, there would need to be either a tax increase for the 18-65 age group or a benefit decrease for the 65+ age group.

However, since 2011 when the first cohort of Baby Boomers turned 65, there has been a deceleration of growth in Medicare spending. In 2012, Medicare spending grew by 4%. In 2013, despite approximately 3 million Baby Boomers became Medicare qualified, spending grew only 3.4%.⁴ Part of this has been contributed to the Affordable Care Act and another part to the inflation of healthcare finally slowing down after a 50 year uptrend (read about that here).

Additionally, the statistics being thrown around are all about the Medicare hospital trust fund, which, yes, is predicted to only be able to cover 85% of expenses in 2030.⁵ The other parts of Medicare are not paid for by trust funds but rather by general revenue and premiums enrollees pay. Therefore, they're not going anywhere.

Bottom line: The Baby Boomers are not going to become Baby Doomers. Medicare depletion is not imminent crisis, though Congress is going to have to come up with a plan for long-term balance, such as government-paid prescription discounts or a way to prevent a return of healthcare inflation.

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1. Vainisi, Mike. "The Quiet Way America Will Really Change in 2015." Attn:. Our Time Media, Inc., 22 Jan. 2015. Web. 25 Jan. 2015.
2. Barr, Paul. "The Boomer Challenge." Baby Boomers Will Transform Health Care as They Age. Hospital & Health Networks, 14 Jan. 2014. Web. 24 Jan. 2015.
3. "Trustees: Baby Boomers Will Exhaust Medicare Trust Fund By 2026." CBS DC. CBS DC, 31 May 2013. Web. 25 Jan. 2015.
4. Leonard, Kimberly. "Health Spending Has Lowest Rate Increase on Record." US News. U.S.News & World Report, 3 Dec. 2014. Web. 25 Jan. 2015.
5. Miller, Mark. "The Truth about Social Security and Medicare, Straight from the Trustees." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 29 July 2014. Web. 25 Jan. 2015.